Economic Fitness Metric

Economic Fitness (EF) is both a measure of a country’s diversification and ability to produce complex goods on a globally competitive basis.  Countries with the highest levels of EF have capabilities to produce a diverse portfolio of products, ability to upgrade into ever-increasing complex goods, tend to have more predictable long-term growth, and to attain good competitive position relative to other countries.   Countries with low EF levels tend to suffer from poverty, low capabilities, less predictable growth, low value-addition, and trouble upgrading and diversifying faster than other countries.  The starting data is the COMTRADE list of products exported by each country. This data defines a bipartite network of countries and products, or goods and services. A suitably designed mathematical algorithm applied to this network leads to the Economic Fitness of all countries and the Complexity of all products. The comparison of the Fitness to the GDP reveals hidden information for the development and the growth of the countries. Limitations and exceptions: The trade data are necessary to define a coherent network for all countries and all products. This may have some limitations for countries in which the exported products are not a good proxy of its industrial competitiveness. Also export refers generally to manufacturing. Services can be included but the corresponding database trade in services are less granular. In principle the approach could use other data like the labor statistics which automatically include all services. A basic concept of the algorithm is the importance of diversification. This is correct at the level of countries but it becomes gradually problematic if one moves to smaller scales like regions, cities up to individual firms where specialization becomes dominant. In these cases suitable modifications should be considered. The COMTRADE dataset comes at different levels of granularity. Each level has advantages and disadvantages which should be considered in relation to the problem addressed. Statistical concept and methodology: The new literature of Economic Fitness uses techniques which, differently from traditional index construction approaches, do not try to average out the complexity of the system, but embraces it by explicitly building on the heterogeneity of individual actors, activities and interactions to extract relevant parameters to characterize the system.  In this way, information about production capabilities may be extracted from trade in goods.  The interaction among products traded, and the relatively unique combinations are a precursor to future competitiveness and long-term growth.  A basic characteristic of Economic Fitness is being parameter free. The standard methods of analysis consider many elements and sum them up in some suitable way. This sum of incommensurate elements leads to a major problem of controlling noise while increasing signal. The Fitness approach starts by considering a single dataset to control noise problems.  Other data can then be added later in a controlled hierarchical framework 9e.g, services, technologies). The algorithm is designed on simple and transparent economical concepts which have a clear meaning and have been extensively tested. The evolution of each country is defined in the GDP-Fitness space which shows a strong heterogeneity in the dynamics. There is zone characterized by regular flow and another one which is more chaotic. This implies that growth forecasting should consider this heterogeneity and go beyond standard regressions. This novel approach to the analysis and long-term forecasting has been shown to outperform the standard methods even if it requires much less data.
Publisher
The World Bank
Origin
Global
Records
3129
Source
Economic Fitness Metric
country_code year value
AFG 1995 0.068948
AGO 1995 0
ALB 1995 0.19011
AND 1995 0.65982
ARE 1995 0.10596
ARG 1995 0.78902
ARM 1995 0.020267
AUS 1995 1.1167
AUT 1995 4.1483
AZE 1995 0.026633
BDI 1995 0.0066877
BEL 1995 5.1239
BEN 1995 0.030684
BFA 1995 0.02342
BGD 1995 0.10746
BGR 1995 1.141
BHR 1995 0.050145
BIH 1995 0.38089
BLR 1995 0.49446
BLZ 1995 0.041225
BOL 1995 0.076967
BRA 1995 1.6966
BRN 1995 0.00011853
BTN 1995 0.016536
CAF 1995 0.02449
CAN 1995 1.6268
CHE 1995 6.132
CHL 1995 0.34157
CHN 1995 3.857
CIV 1995 0.077092
CMR 1995 0.023974
COD 1995 0.0055744
COG 1995 0.0013027
COL 1995 0.51624
CRI 1995 0.2412
CYP 1995 0.5435
CZE 1995 4.7976
DEU 1995 10.273
DNK 1995 2.994
DZA 1995 0.026403
ECU 1995 0.085125
EGY 1995 0.47756
ERI 1995 0.068361
ESP 1995 3.9636
EST 1995 1.2526
ETH 1995 0.014415
FIN 1995 1.7605
FRA 1995 6.2065
GAB 1995 0
GBR 1995 6.6168
GEO 1995 0.26247
GHA 1995 0.0164
GIN 1995 0.0074393
GMB 1995 0.093218
GNB 1995 0
GRC 1995 0.97817
GRL 1995 0.0045479
GTM 1995 0.4216
GUY 1995 0.0049153
HND 1995 0.18203
HRV 1995 1.4443
HUN 1995 2.4427
IDN 1995 1.0307
IND 1995 2.6222
IRL 1995 1.6294
IRN 1995 0.018025
IRQ 1995 0
ISL 1995 0.1385
ISR 1995 2.3245
ITA 1995 6.6157
JOR 1995 0.37063
JPN 1995 7.2301
KAZ 1995 0.16681
KEN 1995 0.24584
KGZ 1995 0.18602
KHM 1995 0.023143
KOR 1995 2.482
KWT 1995 0.00015943
LAO 1995 0.025415
LBN 1995 0.52656
LBR 1995 0.0053041
LBY 1995 0.00047036
LTU 1995 0.92988
LVA 1995 0.62726
MAR 1995 0.42505
MDG 1995 0.091297
MEX 1995 1.8893
MKD 1995 0.96362
MLI 1995 0.03445
MLT 1995 0.2855
MMR 1995 0.032911
MNE 1995
MNG 1995 0.020141
MOZ 1995 0.024877
MRT 1995 0.00030325
MWI 1995 0.092657
MYS 1995 1.0528
NER 1995 0.095892
NGA 1995 0.0024274
NIC 1995 0.14439

Economic Fitness Metric

Economic Fitness (EF) is both a measure of a country’s diversification and ability to produce complex goods on a globally competitive basis.  Countries with the highest levels of EF have capabilities to produce a diverse portfolio of products, ability to upgrade into ever-increasing complex goods, tend to have more predictable long-term growth, and to attain good competitive position relative to other countries.   Countries with low EF levels tend to suffer from poverty, low capabilities, less predictable growth, low value-addition, and trouble upgrading and diversifying faster than other countries.  The starting data is the COMTRADE list of products exported by each country. This data defines a bipartite network of countries and products, or goods and services. A suitably designed mathematical algorithm applied to this network leads to the Economic Fitness of all countries and the Complexity of all products. The comparison of the Fitness to the GDP reveals hidden information for the development and the growth of the countries. Limitations and exceptions: The trade data are necessary to define a coherent network for all countries and all products. This may have some limitations for countries in which the exported products are not a good proxy of its industrial competitiveness. Also export refers generally to manufacturing. Services can be included but the corresponding database trade in services are less granular. In principle the approach could use other data like the labor statistics which automatically include all services. A basic concept of the algorithm is the importance of diversification. This is correct at the level of countries but it becomes gradually problematic if one moves to smaller scales like regions, cities up to individual firms where specialization becomes dominant. In these cases suitable modifications should be considered. The COMTRADE dataset comes at different levels of granularity. Each level has advantages and disadvantages which should be considered in relation to the problem addressed. Statistical concept and methodology: The new literature of Economic Fitness uses techniques which, differently from traditional index construction approaches, do not try to average out the complexity of the system, but embraces it by explicitly building on the heterogeneity of individual actors, activities and interactions to extract relevant parameters to characterize the system.  In this way, information about production capabilities may be extracted from trade in goods.  The interaction among products traded, and the relatively unique combinations are a precursor to future competitiveness and long-term growth.  A basic characteristic of Economic Fitness is being parameter free. The standard methods of analysis consider many elements and sum them up in some suitable way. This sum of incommensurate elements leads to a major problem of controlling noise while increasing signal. The Fitness approach starts by considering a single dataset to control noise problems.  Other data can then be added later in a controlled hierarchical framework 9e.g, services, technologies). The algorithm is designed on simple and transparent economical concepts which have a clear meaning and have been extensively tested. The evolution of each country is defined in the GDP-Fitness space which shows a strong heterogeneity in the dynamics. There is zone characterized by regular flow and another one which is more chaotic. This implies that growth forecasting should consider this heterogeneity and go beyond standard regressions. This novel approach to the analysis and long-term forecasting has been shown to outperform the standard methods even if it requires much less data.
Publisher
The World Bank
Origin
Global
Records
3129
Source