Immigration Trends Over a Decade of Wars and Unemployment in Arab Countries

Over the past decade, Arab countries have experienced significant rates of asylum and migration. These movements have been driven by political transitions, wars and conflicts, resulting in both humanitarian and economic crises. This article explores the dynamics of migration, examining factors such as political stability, violence and unemployment in six Arab countries between 2012 and 2021.

This article focuses on Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan and Yemen, all of which have experienced wars, conflicts and political transitions over the past decade. These events have triggered multiple waves of migration, resulting from the ongoing conflicts and the resulting economic crises.

Arab Countries | Net migration

During the first four years of the Syrian crisis, migration rates were remarkably high due to the war and economic crises in Syria, As reported by UNHCR. After more than a decade of conflict, Syria remains the world's largest refugee crisis. Since 2011, more than 14 million Syrians have been forced to flee their homes in search of safety. Over 7.2 million Syrians remain internally displaced, with 70 percent of the population in need of humanitarian assistance and 90 percent living below the poverty line. Approximately 5.5 million Syrian refugees live in the five countries neighboring Syria - Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt. According to the UNHCR, Germany is the largest non-neighboring host country, with more than 850,000 Syrian refugees.

Syrian Arab Republic | Net migration

Lebanon experienced immigration in 2013-2014, coinciding with the beginning of the Syrian crisis. In particular, these two years saw the highest periods of immigration, especially from Syrian areas close to the Lebanese border. However, Lebanon experienced a large wave of migration between 2015 and 2019, closely linked to the economic crisis and the beginning of the country's political crisis. During this period, Lebanon experienced bombings, acts of violence, an ongoing government crisis, a presidential vacuum and an uncertain political and economic future. As a result, the waves of migration began to increase.

Lebanon | Net migration

Political Stability

Political instability and high levels of violence are major drivers of migration. Countries experiencing prolonged political turmoil, armed conflict, or major civil wars often experience large waves of migration as people flee in search of safety and stability.

Arab Countries | Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism: Estimate

The Political Stability and Absence of Violence Index provides a country's score on the overall index in standard normal distribution units, ranging roughly between -2.5 and 2.5. In 2012-2013, Yemen's scores were -2.43 and -2.37, indicating a high level of political instability and violence.

Yemen | Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism: Estimate

Although the country experienced ongoing conflict and civil war during these years, migration rates were relatively low compared to the high levels of political instability. This can be attributed to the challenges and risks associated with migration during active conflict.

Yemen | Net migration

Unemployment rate

Another reason that drives people to migrate is unemployment, as it often leaves them with no other option but to seek opportunities and a decent life elsewhere. Unemployment in many Arab countries is distinct from that in other parts of the world. In some Arab countries, where social services are lacking, people must earn their living by working in unstable jobs. Conversely, in countries with well-developed safety nets, workers can afford to wait for suitable or desirable jobs. Therefore, unemployment in the countries studied is considered a direct cause of migration.

Arab Countries | Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)

Between 2019 and 2021, Iraq experienced a particularly high unemployment rate, with figures exceeding 16 per cent. This persistent unemployment has been exacerbated by several factors, including political instability, economic challenges and the impact of global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Iraq | Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)

The lack of employment opportunities has had a significant impact on the population, contributing to widespread economic hardship and social unrest. This situation has in turn led to an increase in emigration rates from the country.

Iraq | Net migration